SSCI期刊《Sustainability》, 2017, 9（6）:906.

 

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Product Price Fluctuations on China’s Grain Yield

谢花林^1,2，王柏皓¹

1. 江西财经大学生态文明研究院

2. 江西财经大学江西省生态文明制度建设协同创新中心

Abstract: In recent years, food security, especially supply, has been an important issue in China’s agricultural production. The stability of grain prices is related to the stability and development of the grain market. Based on agricultural production data from 1970 to 2015, this paper explores the influence of agricultural product price fluctuations on grain production by using the cobweb theory and vector error correction (VEC) model. The results show that changes in grain production in China are affected by fluctuations in agricultural product prices, that the production change lags behind the price change, and that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between grain yield and agricultural product price. A Granger causality test shows that the change in agricultural product price is the Granger cause of grain yield change.

Key words: agricultural product price; grain yield; cobweb theory; VEC model; food security; China