SCI,《Science  of the Total Environment》（IF=4.610）.Accepted

Warning  of negative effects of land-use changes on ecological security based on  GIS

Hualin  Xie^a, Yafen He^a, Yongrok Choi^b,*, Qianru  Chen^a, Hao Cheng^c

1. Institute of  Ecological Civilization, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang  330013, China;

2. Department of  International Trade and Regional Studies, Inha University, 100 Inha-ro, Nam-gu,  Incheon 402-751, Republic of Korea

3. Collage of  Finance, Taxation and Public Administration, Jiangxi University of Finance and  Economics, Nanchang 330013, China

Abstract: Urbanization  leads to dramatic changes in regional land-use patterns and threatens regional  ecological security. Based on GIS and existing key ecological space s, timely  threat warnings to regional ecological spaces caused by artificial land-use  changes and the identification of appropriate precautionary measures are  necessary for the sustainable development of regional land resources. Taking  2010 as the base year, the study forecasts the demand for new construction land  in the surveyed region in 2015 and 2030 using a Markov model; on this basis, a  logistic cellular automata (CA) model is built to forecast the land use  distribution related to construction land expansion and requisition-compensation  balance of cultivated land. An OA value of 85.05% and a Kappa coefficient of  77.48% indicate a good simulation accuracy. B overlaying the existing regional  key ecological space s with the forecasted distribution of land-use changes,  potential ecological security alerts are derived from the regional land-use  changes. Results shows that according to the current development mode, by 2030,  the regional ecological security in the study area will be threatened by 35% of  the new construction land and 80% of the supplementary cultivated land. The  early warning mechanism for land-use ecological security can effectively  forewarn the ecological threats derived from land use, thus helping decision  makers to prevent risks in advance. Finally, the corresponding precautionary  strategy is put forward.

Keywords: Land  use; Ecological security; Early warning; Ecological management；GIS; Poyang lake  ecological zone.